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The short term debt cycle and the stock market
One of the advantages of being an experienced trader is you can recognize market repetitive behavior patterns. In my comment on your Ray Dalio's Feb 5, 2018 video, I said "For those of you that are now feeling pain there is an old saying the market always gives you a chance to get out so any significant pull backs are now great selling opportunities" this is that moment I was predicting. The large portfolio managers (who can't dump all there inventory in one day) also know this and will be selling the novice investor all the shares he can afford over this short period as we approach the old market highs. This whipsaw action is typical of a long term market top. YouTube Video
The Manager, Fidelibus Lucrum, Pooled Investment Club.
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Stock market news - will stocks go lower?
One of the advantages of being a trader and not an investor is that I don't need to make the crucial decision between selling and holding, as an investor this decision can make or break you. If you look at Vanguard Total World Stock (VT) on Friday it closed (including Fridays recovery) at the same price that it was back on 1st November 2017, wiping out over 14 weeks gains in just 10 trading days. A successful traders approach to the market is much more strategic that an investors and therefore more robust in volatile times that we are now entering. On Friday my portfolio P&L had small swings +/- 1.5%, I made very few adjustments to my deltas as I'm much more delta neutral than an all long investor. But a classic investor with an all long position portfolio would of seen his P&L % wildly swing on Friday lows to the closing highs probably throwing in the towel at the lows or even there broker closing the position due to forced margin liquidation taking you out at the worst possible moment. I heard so many stupid YouTube videos last week of investors buying the dip, they said they were doing their "Christmas shopping early" I wonder how they like their presents now that they have got them home and unwrapped them?. So my message is if you are passive investor you need to be more strategic as of this moment going forward. "Don't be a monkey!!"
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Ray dalio's $4 billion bet against italian banks!
Hi Sven, slightly off subject but with the market activity and excitement. I just looked back at two comments that I made recently on your videos Nov 21, 2017 and Jan 26, 2018. My prediction of trading systems failures and wide spreads has just played out "Fidelity Reports Web Issues After Robo-Adviser Sites Crash" the downside risk I feared was very real. For those of you that are now feeling pain there is an old saying "The market always give you a chance to get out" so any significant pull backs are now great selling opportunities. Not so sure that the Bitcoin buyers at 20k will be as lucky!. YouTube Video
The Manager, Fidelibus Lucrum, Pooled Investment Club.
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